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Iron ore spot market is immersed in low fan
From;    Author:Stand originally
"Begin from May, iron ore spot price gives now to drop, and two months drop recently fiercer " , ren Linna of analyst of the negotiable securities that bring a letter expresses, at present price of iron ore spot market drops, it is domestic and international integrated action brings about all sorts of elements the result with abate demand. The personage inside course of study is analysed, spot market of the iron ore inside period of time will be maintained henceforth low confuse condition. Market demand is abate the data according to Chinese steely association, at present market of pink of domestic iron essence continues to glide in the round, the market clinchs a deal very delicate still, steelworks continues to reduce iron concentrate purchase the value. With hill of Heibei the Tang Dynasty 66% wet base iron essence pink is exemple, this year in August of the middle ten days of a month leave factory do not contain duty value to be every tons of 1000-1030 yuan, and in May the middle ten days of a month leaves factory do not contain duty value to be 1200-1210 yuan, dropped about 16.67 % ; The mine of iron essence pink of Han Dan area contained duty value to be every tons of 1750-1850 May yuan, and the price at the beginning of September falls to every tons of 1450-1500 yuan, dropped 17.14% . The spot price of other area also has different rate drop. The newest statistic of Zhao Hunan another name for Hubei province also shows analyst of smooth old negotiable securities, market of pink of essence of iron of home of a week clinched a deal in September cold and cheerless, continued last week drop situation, drop than last week 1.96% ; And market of iron ore of entrance merchandise on hand clinchs a deal measure farther atrophy, the price relatively dropped last week 2.96% . This and in recent years of iron ore rise ceaselessly form contrast. Be like in May 2007 the first ten days of a month, of Tang Shan area 66% wet base iron essence pink does not contain duty value every tons are 660 yuan only, and the price after dropping August still exceeds 1000 yuan. Zhao Baofeng of analyst of Oriental negotiable securities thinks, be nearly a few months price of home market rolled steel drops continuously, bring about a few in profit of small steely company drops considerably even deficit, must reduction of output or stop production, some big steely companies also begin to be restricted to produce, cause iron ore slow down in demand thereby, cause iron ore spot price to drop. He expresses, the periodic change that economy grows is the main factor that at present iron ore spot price drops. The statistical data of Chinese steely association shows, aggregate index of price of home market rolled steel is at the beginning of September 151.39, it is at the beginning of August 160.99, it is at the beginning of July 161.92, 10.53 percent dropped before at present rolled steel aggregate index compares two months, drop for 6.52% . Ren Linna expresses, at present price of iron ore spot market drops, it is domestic and international integrated action brings about all sorts of elements the result with abate demand: It is international economy suffers the United States second the influence that lends the crisis, world economy gives now to slip, our country exit is added fast drop to decrease somewhat to rolled steel demand; 2 it is current keep long in stock of iron ore of our country haven is serious, achieve about 70 million tons at present, to the market supply generates pressure; 3 it is effect of macroscopical adjusting control is shown, price of steely slow down in demand glides, a few steely enterprises begin to be restricted to produce reduction in production, small company even stop production, decrease to iron ore demand. Low fan will still be opposite continuously the trend of iron ore price, ren Linna thinks, period of time still will be maintained henceforth low confused condition, the reason is effect of our country macroscopical adjusting control will be shown further, the main consumption industry of rolled steel grows speed to put delay like the industry such as estate, car, rolled steel demand decreases, price fall, this brings about a few big steely companies to be restricted to produce not only, and a few in small steely company also because of deficit must reduction of output even stop production, early days because the possibility that enterprise answer produces the little iron and steel of Olympic Games stop production is not large also. According to the data of steely association, whorl steel price from June first every tons drop 5714 yuan to 5122 current yuan, every tons drop 592 yuan, drop for 10.36% . The statistical data of association of Chinese auto industry also shows, this year August, car produce and sale appears to play slippery trend certainly as before, manufacturing car six hundred and fifteen thousand five hundred, annulus comparing drops 15.91% , drop compared to the same period 3.50% ; Sell a car 629 thousand, annulus comparing drops 5.53% , drop compared to the same period 6.34% . Downstream depression is sure to cause pair of iron ore demand decrease, and this kind of state will still last for some time, because economy is basic,the change of the face is a process, it is certain to have inertial; What is more,the rather that, in recent years iron ore price rises continuously, profitable effect is apparent, iron ore increase production is very big, the market is supplied increase apparently. The data makes clear, domestic large mine produces iron ore first half of the year this year three hundred and ninety-one million three hundred and seventy-one thousand eight hundred tons, grow 25.82% compared to the same period, increase production quantity achieves 80.32 million tons. And tycoon of Australian iron ore needs and need pictures also said a few days ago, although predict Chinese demand drops somewhat, but did not come one year its will still increase production 10% . Below the circumstance that changes somewhat in state of supply and demand, iron ore spot price drops inevitable also. Zhao Baofeng of analyst of smooth old negotiable securities is analysed, how does later period of iron ore price go to treat market demand condition even, look from longer period, because our country industrialization and city change a process to have not end, our country will still show growth trend to the demand of rolled steel, but the scope that demand increases will drop. Accordingly, although the demand to iron ore can grow, but amplitude will drop, iron ore price also will return to appropriate level in wave motion. Be helpful for negotiating to import iron ore price to negotiate in last few years next year fetching attention, it is annual not just price of our country entrance rises considerably, more important is the position that our country is in passivity all the time in the negotiation, be forced to accept the demand increasing price of convention of Australian company disagreement even, make the price negotiation that made a rule in the past forms a mechanism to be destroyed. The message said a few days ago, in the light of the demand increasing price that Australian company wins, company of fresh water river valley puts forward to increase price further 20% requirements. Ground of this of course should be rejected, but the iron ore price of past effective forms a mechanism to be destroyed, more may adverse to the negotiation of our country next year. Ren Linna also expresses, although every are the period that price of iron ore entrance negotiates first year after year, but current condition caused each square attention. The personage inside course of study is analysed, bargainor such " aggressive " , monopoly position is on in iron ore international market besides its outside, as non-standard as our country home market also closely related the spot market that is kept in the disorder even. Of price of our country spot market rise quickly, offerred for bargainor huff strong " argument " . This year first quarter, be the hour with intense negotiation, domestic spot price is pushed so that stand high above the masses however. Data shows, price of iron ore of Tang Shan area is in this year 2, every tons once are achieved March 1600 multivariate. And press the entrance price last year, the FOB of Brazilian iron ore is 48 dollars only / ton, add up to a RMB to be not worth 400 yuan / ton, considering maritime freight, the domestic price that imports iron ore also does not cross 800 yuan / or so tons. So huge gap, how can the bargainor raise price? The other side is minatory even do not accept rise in price to will reduce long sheet considerably ore is supplied and resell spot market, also be with respect to inadequacy blamed. At present spot price drops is a good news to steely enterprise not only, and if can go down continuously, the price that is the coming year the negotiation offers favorable environment. Nevertheless, also the personage is analysed, should note normative spot market particularly in this moment, if price reappear is blind,rise otherwise, will increase meaningless trouble for negotiation of next year iron ore.

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